Volume 2 · Issue 5 (2025)
Analysis of Accident Chain and Consequences of Hazardous Chemical Logistics Warehouse Under Earthquake Coupled Disaster
Boyang Qin, Yanlin Liu
China People's Police University, Langfang, Hebei 065000, China
Abstract: To further clarify the development of earthquake-coupled disaster chains in hazardous chemical logistics warehouses and enhance emergency response capabilities for such scenarios, this study establishes an accident evolution analysis framework integrating Bayesian networks and failure probability models. First, based on disaster chain theory, we analyze the evolutionary patterns during the direct earthquake impact phase and domino effect phase, identifying key scenario elements and development pathways for earthquake-coupled disasters in hazardous chemical warehouses. Second, we propose a scenario simulation method combining Bayesian networks and probabilistic models to identify critical nodes and dominant pathways in disaster evolution. By integrating thermal radiation and overpressure consequence models, we quantify the disaster's impact scope and destructive severity. Finally, through case studies of earthquake-coupled disasters in hazardous chemical warehouses, we validate the model's feasibility and applicability, providing theoretical foundations and practical references for disaster scenario construction and emergency resource allocation.
Keywords: Hazardous Chemical Fire; Disaster Chain Analysis; Bayesian Network; Failure Probability
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