Volume 2 · Issue 4 (2025)
Fire Risk Assessment in the Guangxi region of China Based on SMAP Soil Moisture Data
Yufeng Lu1,2, Lei Gao1,2, Yi Su1,2, Xiajin Rao1,2, Wei Zhang1,2
1 Electric Power Research Institute of Guangxi Power Grid Co., Ltd., Nanning, GuangXi 530023, China
2 Guangxi Key Laboratory of Intelligent Control and Maintenance of Power Equipment, Nanning, GuangXi 530023, China
Abstract: A fire risk assessment for the Guangxi region of China in 2024 is carried out in this study using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite data. Specifically, by analyzing the relationship between the SMAP soil moisture and the number of fire points, we develop a fire risk assessment method based on soil moisture conditions. The spatio-temporal distributions and variation patterns of fire points in Guangxi are evaluated from the perspectives of multiple time scales, different soil moisture statistics and varying fire durations, providing scientific reference and technical support for early warnings of disasters such as forest and grassland fires. The results indicate that SMAP soil moisture data effectively reflect the dryness of surface combustible materials. A prominent negative correlation is observed between the number of fire points and soil moisture content, although the correlations vary with time scales and remain below 0.6 (R2). The correlation at the monthly scale is markedly stronger than that at the ten-day and daily scales. Compared with the values of soil moisture, the regional relative deviation of soil moisture has a stronger correlation with the number of fire points, with R2 values reaching 0.744, 0.763 and 0.922 at the day, ten-day and monthly scales, respectively. Statistics further reveal that for every 10% decrease in soil moisture content, the number of fire points in Guangxi in 2024 can increase by over 50%. These findings demonstrate that soil moisture plays an important role in fire risk assessment, and the assessment methods based on SMAP soil moisture data has promising potential in fire risk analysis.
Keywords: Fire risk assessment; Soil moisture; Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP); the Guangxi region
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