Volume 3 · Issue 7 (2026)
DOI number:
10.66521/2938-9933-2026070101
The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the Innovation Capabilities of Countries Along the Route
Yiming Ding
Business School, East China University of Political Science and Law, Shanghai 201620, China
Abstract: Over the more than ten years since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed, the global economic and political landscape has undergone profound changes, making scientific and effective policy evaluation essential for promoting its high-quality development. Based on panel data from 103 countries covering the period 2009–2023, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences method to systematically assess the causal effects of Belt and Road cooperation on national innovation capacity. The findings reveal that the Belt and Road Initiative significantly promotes national innovation capacity. This conclusion remains valid after undergoing a series of robustness tests—including parallel trends tests, policy time-randomness tests, placebo tests, and subsample regressions—and after further addressing endogeneity issues using the instrumental variables method. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that this promotional effect is primarily concentrated in emerging market and developing countries.This paper not only provides new empirical evidence on the policy effects of the Belt and Road Initiative from the perspective of innovation capacity but also offers policy references for promoting its high-quality and differentiated development.
Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; National Innovation Capacity; Multi-period Difference-in-Differences
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